Emini Day Trading Diary

5 minutes Nasdaq 100 Emini

Daily Nasdaq 100 Emini

Hi,

How's it going, news of holiday season and traders dumping the dollar sent the markets plunging... Well, if you ask me, this is not surprising... given that the markets has been up for a few months already... This is just a minor correction.. If you look at the daily charts, the long term trend is still up and this correction is not enough to say that the uptrend has ended...

With that in mind, as day traders, we have to capitalize on short term trends instead of long term trends... Today is a shorting day. BUT, do so cautiously,,, since technically, the long term trend is still up....

At 9:50, I shorted 1 contract at 1810,,, notice that the mid-term MACD has already crossed the zero line. This is a powerful signal to go short.
At 10:10 I shorted another 2 contracts at 1805....... and everything seems to be going welll..
At around 11:00 am... I am thinking whether I should close my position,, but price action seems strong.... and I let it swim...
At 12:35,, I closed my positions at $1300, when Mid-term MACD crossed the smoothed MACD line ( shown in red circle). ...

Will this plunge continue or will market prove resilient and continue in the uptrend again? We have to be cautious tomorrow.

Posted by Michael Taylor at 5:15 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

5 minutes Emini Nasdaq 100

Hi,

Market is closing 2 hours early today... there is not much news and movement... and we can tell that there are few market participants by the low volume in the market. Most people are hunting for bargains at Wal-Mart?.. ... Well, market opened gap down today.... A 13 point gap.... I wasn't sure whether this will close or turn into a runaway gap....

At 9:50 however,,, price action showed signs that it is attempting to close the gap and MACD turned up.... I longed 1 contract at 1814... at 10:15 I longed another 2 contracts after price was supported by the moving averages... Stochastics also turned up from the oversold region... My price target was naturally yesterday's close... At 10:50, my target was hit and I exited at 1824 with $520 of profits.

Posted by Michael Taylor at 4:05 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

5 mins Emini Nasdaq 100 Chart

From Briefing.com:
New Claims Show Strong Labor Market:
New claims for unemployment rose to 321,000 for the week ended November 18 from 309,000 the week before. Claims have been very steady over the past half year, mostly in a 300,000 to 330,000 range. The four-week moving average now stands at 317,000. This uptick is not in itself statistically significant. The labor market remains very strong.

Hi,

Market gapped up slightly on strong new claims numbers... However, it plunged down for almost 30 minutes after that, closing the gap and beyond... I did not capture this move,,, however, I saw that price is poised for a rebound when it touches the moving averages with stochastics and my short-term MACD moving up from oversold region ( red circles above)....

I longed 1 contract at 1808 at 10:15,, and another 2 contracts at 1811 when price just went over the moving averages.... My price target was the high at 1822 established at the opening....

However, at 11:50, price action was getting increasingly weak and I decided to exit at 1819 with profits of $540.

Posted by Michael Taylor at 1:18 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

5 min Emini Nasdaq 100 Chart

Hi,
As I have mentioned before in previous posts, the market is slowing down into a period of uncertainty, whether to go further up or pullback temmporarily. Whatever it is, the uptrend is still in tact and I see no reason why we shouldn't focus more on long setups rather than short setups..

This trade although not very profitable, is of a high degree of probability..Firstly, we can see the double bottom forming. Secondly, when the double bottom forms and rebounce from the upward sloping moving averages, you know that price is trying to make a comeback..

I longed 1 contract at 1806.5 and another 2 contracts at 1808.... As the market is still choppy, I didn't place my price target too far,,, I decided to place safe by exiting at 1812, for a profit of $270.

Posted by Michael Taylor at 4:18 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

5 min Emini Nasdaq 100 Chart

Hi,
I know the trading environment is difficult now and that price is hitting a rut... if you look at the daily chart, it is at the top of the bollinger band and hitting th upper resistance trendline... everybody's waiting for a correction... but surprising,, the market remains resilient...

today's trade capitalized on gap closure and upturn in stochastics.. At 9:45 am,stochastics turned from oversold region and I longed 1 contract at 1798... at 9:44, I went long another 2 contracts at 1800. I set my profit target at yesterday's close, 1806.

The technical evidence were that price is going to close the gap soon... my stop loss is at 1794.... at 10:00, price spiked up and my profit target is hit... I am out with $400 profits.

Posted by Michael Taylor at 5:21 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

Daily Nasdaq Emini 100 CandleStick Chart

Hi,

If you had played more longs than short from August till now, I bet your account should be ending up in huge profits. The uptrend is very obvious as shown in the chart above. With the market indices at an all time high, the market is in a state of euphoria as well as a state of anticipation... Everbody wishes to see the market rally even more, but catiously anticipate any pullbacks or sharp correction...

Technically speaking, the uptrend is still in tact, this week price ended at the upper band of the Bollinger Band and the upper resistance line.... I am cautious about an impending pullback.. Remember, a pullback is perfectly normal... price doesnt move in a straight line and a pullback is healthy.. Subsequent developments after the pullback will tell us whether the uptrend is ending soon or we can expect new highs.... Please stay on the sidelines for the next week if you are unsure... There is no need to force yourself to trade.

Good Trading,
Michael Taylor
www.DayTradeEmini.com

Posted by Michael Taylor at 2:02 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

5 Minutes Nasdaq Emini 100 CandleStick Chart

Hi,
How's the trading lately? Yes, I know the market has been choppy and it has been a particularly difficult time to trade. Remember it is better to stay out of the market completely if you feel the conditions are not right. The smarter way would be "not earning or losing" compared to "losing" if you forced yourself to trade.

Market opened with a gap down and I was watching it the whole morning with no confidence of entering. However, at 11:50 am, my mid-term MACD crossed the smoothed MACD (the red circle above) and this was a signal for me to enter. Furthermore, price action formed some sort of a double bottom patttern and I knew price was poised for a rebound.... I longed 1 contract at 1797.. and another 2 contracts at 1799 at 12:00...

I did not have much confidence in this trade and placed the profit target at 1803.75, which is the high established by the morning session. At 12:30, my profit target was hit and price actually went beyond that to 1806... Well,, I failed to capture that 3 points and there was no way I could've predicted that but I was satisfied... with $325 profits.

Posted by Michael Taylor at 5:50 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

5 min Nasdaq Emini Candlestick Chart

Hi,

Today's a day of news release, please refer below for the fundamental news....

What I know is, price action is still choppy... we are entering into a ranging market unless price can make a break through, the uptrend is heading towards a pull back.. It is an extremely difficult environment to trade in and I dont advise beginners to plunge right in....

Today's trade is based on price pull back to the moving averages and an upturn in stochastics...
I entered 1 contract at 1800 at 10:55 am and another 2 contracts at 1802 at 11:15,,, I didn't really like the price action after entering and was waiting for a chance to get out.... I got out at 12:10 at 1806, with a profit of $280 after seeing a doji candlestick...
It's rest day for me today.

------
Some fundamentals from Briefing.com:
Industrial Production in Line with Expectations:
November industrial production inched up 0.2% after a 0.6% drop in October. Utility output, which was down sharply the prior month, bounced back and led to the gain. But manufacturing output fell 0.2% for the second straight month. The drop this month was due to auto production. Excluding this factor, manufacturing output was up 0.1%.
The trend in industrial production has clearly eased, but should settle in to modest growth in the months ahead. This report was in line with expectations.

Modest Increase in Core CPI:
The modest 0.1% increase in the October core CPI is very good news. It occurred despite an uptick in the owners equivalent rent component to 0.4% which is a full 23% of CPI (and 30.3% of the core rate). This jump in the imputed cost of housing means that the cost of actual goods purchased in November was flat (0.0%).
The year-over-year increase in the core rate eased to 2.7% from 2.9%. This rate will probably ease further in the months ahead as slower growth in economic demand should allow the core rate to rise 0.1% to 0.2% per month.

The total CPI fell 0.5%. This was due, of course, to lower gas prices. Energy prices overall fell 7.0%. The total CPI is now up just 1.3% over the past year.

The inflation news this morning is clearly very good, not just for the one month of data, but for the implications for future trends.

In a separate release, new claims for unemployment for the week ended November 11 were 308,000. This is down 2,000 from the week before. Claims have been near this level for months, reflecting a strong labor market.

Posted by Michael Taylor at 4:15 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

5 min Nasdaq Emini 100

Daily Nasdaq Emini 100

Hi,
Today's trade for the more accomplished trader, because it requires you to go short in an upward trend. However, with practice, you should be able to identify shorting signals even in an upwardtrend.

Firstly, we can see that markets are choppy in the morning session as NQ hits the resistance at 1805, this tells us that there is a good chance that price might fall back down again.

Secondly, looking at the daily chart, although the upward trend is still in tact, it has hit the upper Bollinger Band and also the resistance trendline that I have drawn. This does not mean that the uptrend is going to end. It simply means that there might be a correction before moving up further. Remember, there are no technical signs to prove that the uptrend has ended.

Thirdly, when price hit above 1810, there was a sharp reversal by a huge red candle stick and stochastics also moved down from the overbought region..I immedidately shorted 1 contract at 1810 at 2:15 pm and another 2 contracts at 1807 at 2:35 pm. My profit target was at 1801, yes, the trick is to put your target slightly above 1800.... At 2:55pm. my target was reached and I was out with $420 profits.

Posted by Michael Taylor at 5:17 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

5 minutes Emini Nasdaq 100 Charts

Hi,

Today's trade is a long one, but a very profitable one. This trade is a low risk, high return set up. I hope you can recognize this pattern and profit from it again when you see it again.

Firstly, we can see that the moving averages are trending upwards, this means that the uptrend is not broken yet and there is no case for going short.

Secondly, although the markets were boring in the morning.... price formed a double bottom pattern. Now, usually double bottom patterns form at the end of a downtrend, but this is a powerful chart pattern and even when it appears in the context of an uptrend it is still valid. I went long 1 contract when price broke the neckline at 1773.

Thirdly, mid-term MACD has just cut across the zero-line, this is also a powerful signal that price has enough momentum to move even further.

Price took a break and consolidated at around 1780, when it broke out again at 2:25 pm, I went long another 2 contracts at 1780... Beyond 1780,, I had no idea where price will go...

I sensed some weakness at 15:15 and when price hit 1790, I exited all 3 contracts with $740 profits.

Posted by Michael Taylor at 7:41 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

5 Minutes Emini Nasdaq 100 CandleStick Chart

Hi,

How's your trading lately? The uptrend is still in tact.. alot of people tell me to expect a market correction and that market is overbought.. Well, I only believe what the charts tell me.... there is no technical indication that the uptrend is coming to an end.

Market opened with a huge white candlestick that immediately went over yesterday's high.... this is a strong indication that the bulls are in power. I longed one contract at 1760 at 9:35 am. There was a slight correction at 9:45 am. and I went long 2 more contracts at 1763...

My stop loss was at 1756. I didn't put a profit target since momemtum was high and there is potential for a major move...Finally at 10:05 am. there was a slight pause and sign that market is running out of steam... I exited my position with a profit of $720.

Posted by Michael Taylor at 1:18 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

5 minutes Nasdaq 100 Emini CandleStick

Hi,

How's it going? I hope you didn't trade today. Its a very difficult market today... I instictively knew it from the price action in the first 30 minutes of the market.... I took a break and came back at 14:00.... my hunch was correct, market is still choppy... I didn't trade today and stayed out of the market..

Firstly, you can see for yourself that stochastics is choppy, bouncing up and down rapidly,
Secondlly, you can see that there is no trend for MACD... it'c choppy as well..
Lastly and most importantly,,, you have to judge it from the price action VS the moving averages... The moving averages are more or less flat and price hovers around it...

Posted by Michael Taylor at 5:51 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

Here's the Fundamentals from Briefing.com:
There is good economic news this morning. New claims for unemployment dropped to 308,000 for the week ended November 4 from 328,000 the week before. Layoffs remain at historically low levels as the job market remains strong.

The September trade deficit declined to $64.3 billion from $69.0 billion in August. This was smaller than expected and may produce an upward revision to the 1.6% third quarter GDP number. Lower oil prices helped.

5 min Nasdaq 100 Emini Futures Chart

The fundamentals tell us good news, so should we go long? That's the question that I kept asking myself all morning. Price action obviously told me otherwise..... There wasn't any clear uptrend and price was in a zig zag manner... I decided to wait for the right timing...

My chance came at 13:25 when price broke the neckline of a Heads and Shoulders pattern. Stochastics was also in the overbought region.... I shorted 1 contract at 1760.5.... When price broke the moving average, I shorted another 2 contracts at 1756.5... My profit target was at 1747.5 a low established by the previous day..At 15:00, I was out with profits of $620...

Posted by Michael Taylor at 5:12 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

5 mins Nasdaq 100 Emini candlesticks

Daily Nasdaq 100 Emini candlesticks

Hi,

How's it going? The market rally from yesterday continued. If you look at the Daily charts, you will notice that the uptrend is not broken yet. This is a good market to go long instead of short. In the 5 minutes chart, price opened strongly and was trending upwards..... Stochastics also crossed the oversold line, I decided to wait for more confirmation before entering. Finally, at 9:55, I longed 1 contract at 1743.5 and another 2 at 1747.5...

I did not set a profit target as the price action tells me that there is sufficient momentum and price can just zoom forward..... However after the first red candlestick appeared... I started to feel weak about the whole structure and exited at 1756.5 at 10:25 am..... A profit of $620 for only 30 minutes of work...

Posted by Michael Taylor at 12:24 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

NQ 5 min CandleStick Chart

Hi,

How's it going? As I mentioned in my previous article, the long term uptrend is not yet broken for NQ. Today, NQ opened with a gap up and it just keeps on going up. This is a no brainer and I hope you had made good money on it....

I longed 1 contract at 1725 and another 2 contracts at 1730, my stop loss was at 1720 and I exited when the market paused... I was satisfied with $440 profits.... time for me to go jogging... :p.

Posted by Michael Taylor at 3:54 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

5 minutes NQ Emini CandleStick

Hi,

How's it going? There the non-farm payroll (NFP) today at 8:30a.m and at 10:00am. there's the ISM services index.

Obviously the NFP will overshadow any other news released today, unless there is a major political/ economic event. It's not my practice to trade during the after hours. The momemt NFP was released, price went up significantly and NQ opened with a gap up. However, experience cautions me to wait for more price action before jumping into the trade. Novice traders will be tempted to go long at this instance. There are more than several occassions when price actually went against the pre-market movements.

Well, my hunch was correct and price began to plunge, trying to close the gap at around 9:35 am. I knew this was goidng to be a big move downwards, and I shorted 1 contract at 1719, there was a rebound when the gap closed and price action still looked weak, I shorted another 2 contracts at 1718, my stop loss at 1722, pretty tight. ... My profit target was at 1708, the support established by the low of the previous day. At 11:15 am, I am out with $620 profits...Price continued to plunge even further,... but I wasn't about to kill myself over it... Greed is deadly..

The Fundamentals ( From Briefing.com)
The unemployment rate fell to a five-year low of just 4.4%. Non-farm payrolls were up a slighty smaller than expected 92,000, but the September increase was revised sharply higher to a gain of 148,000 from an originally reported 51,000. That produced an average gain of 120,000 for the two months, in line with the recent trend.

Hourly earnings rose a solid 0.4% as well. This has some modest inflationary implications, but the boost to consumer spending power is more important at this time. Wages are up 3.9% over the past year (and closer to a 5% rate in recent months) and payrolls are rising at a steady 1% annual rate. Those gains are enough to keep consumer spending rising at a 2% to 3% real rate. The employment data didn't eliminate the concerns about the economy, but they helped.

Posted by Michael Taylor at 4:53 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

5 min Nasdaq Emini 100 Chart

Daily Nasdaq Emini 100 Chart

Here's the fundamental:
1 Factory orders were softer than expected at 2.1% (consensus 3.6%) & revised lower in Aug to show contraction.
2 Initial claims rose 18K to 327K in the week of Oct 28.

These are all signs the the economy is slowly down... on a long term basis, the bull trend cannot continue... However, remember, we are day traders and we capitalize on short term imbalances. If you look at the daily chart, you will realize that the uptrend has been in tact since August and there are no signs that it is going to end soon.

Jumping back to the 5 minutes chart, price breached yesterday's low of 1710. If it had continued to go downwards, this would mean that the uptrend has ended. However it rebounded..... at 10:00 am.. and I took a calculated risk by going long 1 contract at 1711. I set my stop loss close at 1706. When price pulled back to 1712.25, I went long another 2 contracts. My profit target was at 1720, slightly below my 60 day moving average. At 10:50 am the trade was exited with $490 in profits.

Posted by Michael Taylor at 11:03 AM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)