5 minutes Nasdaq 100 Emini
Hi,
Market gapped up today on better than expected Nonfarm Payroll numbers.. the numbers seem to reaffrim that we are in godilocks... and the possibility of a soft landing is increasing...
At the opening bell, price gapped around 7.5 points... This is not a big gap, considering how the market gapped by double digits the previous weeks... I was expecting the gap to close...
I waited for the first 5 minutes and by 9:35, stochastics downturned and I was already short 1 contract at 1781..... at 9:50,, price crossed my support line and I shorted another 2 contracts at 1777.,.Price basically went my way and I was just waiting for it to close the gap and go beyond... I exited when it hit my support lines ( from the lows of previous day) to close out at 1765 with $800 profits.
February Payrolls Ease Recession Fears
Last Update: 09-Mar-07 08:47 ET
The recession has again been postponed, Dr. Greenspan's comments notwithstanding. Nonfarm payrolls rose 97,000 in February. That isn't booming by any means, but it isn't weak either. The January increase was also revised higher to show a 146,000 gain from the originally reported 111,000 increase. The very strong tendency for the payroll numbers to be revised upward each month suggests that February's increase might also be revised higher with the March data.
An increase of 97,000 amounts to a .85% annual rate of increase. That is close enough to a 1% annual rate to round to that, especially with the strong January increase and the tendency to revise higher. A 1% rate of increase in workers, coupled with the long-term trend of productivity gains near 2%, is enough to keep underlying real GDP growth close to 3%. That is just a crude measure, but puts the payroll trend in perspective. It is not even close to a recession.
Hourly earnings were up 0.4%. That was a bit stronger than expected and puts the year-over-year gain at 4.1%. That leaves the real rate of wage growth near 2% now that CPI gains have dropped off sharply with lower energy prices. The recent pickup in wage gains, coupled with moderate payroll growth, will keep consumer spending rising at a good solid pace, even with the problems in the housing sector.
The gain in payrolls may have been held back by cold weather in many parts of the country. Construction employment was down a considerable 71,000 after a modest gain in January. Without such a sizeable drop, the overall payroll gain would have been more impressive. Construction employment may well bounce back a bit next month.
The employment data are very much consistent with the widespread view that underlying economic growth is in the 2% to 2 1/2% range. As such, it should ease the fears that have arisen the past two weeks about a possible recession. The housing sector remains a concern, but the labor market is reasonably strong.
--Dick Green, Briefing.com
