Emini Day Trading Diary

5 min Emini Nasdaq 100

Hi,

For whatever reasons, the market gapped up this morning for about 6 points. But movement after that was choppy.. Price appeared to be closing up the gap but just got bounced of resistance...

At 11:30, price started to move down again, this time forming a nice double top with the previous high in the morning.. The move was accompanied by stochastics moving down and Short-term MACD turning downwards too..

I shorted 1 contract at 1965 and another 2 contracts at 1962.... I finally exited at 1957.5 when a white hammer candle appeared and price appeared to bounce off the moving averages..profits = $330.

Posted by Michael Taylor at 5:55 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

5 min Emini Nasdaq

Hi,

Did you try to trade before 14:15? which is before the FED makes the all important announcement about interest rates? I hope not... the market was quiet.. bascially waiting for the big move to come...

However, the big move never did come.. When the Fed announced that they are going to keep rates the same, the market reacted by a small rally.. I went long at 1964.. However, 10 minutes later, I was out at 1962.. There simply isn't enough momentum to carry the trade forward and I couldn't tell the market direction.. This was a confused market... I did the right thing by exit fast and limiting my losses to $40.

Posted by Michael Taylor at 5:46 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

5 min Emini Nasdaq 100

Hi,

The market rebounded today with price slowly trending upwards in the morning session.. I did not enter the market then.. market was whipsawing up and down... and I couldn't really tell the market direction..

The real deal came at around 13:35, when stochastics began to turn up from the oversold region.. It also rebounded from the moving averages... I bought 1 contract at 1935.5...

when price broke through my red moving average, I bought another 2 more contracts at 1942,.. I held the trade all the way till 1955 when stochastics showed sign of turning down again.. profits = $910.

Posted by Michael Taylor at 5:37 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

5 min Emini Nasdaq 100

Today the market opened with a slight gap up of around 2 poiints. The market immediately set itself to close the gap, what I like about this is that price bounced off the moving averages nicely...

This is further coupled with stochastics turning downwards... I shorted 1 contract at 1944 and another 2 contracts at 1940... Notice that during the trade,, I almost got whipsawed out? My stop loss was at 1948.. but price all the way up to 1946... It was close... but remember.. part of trading is to sit tight and let the trade pan out.. if you are wrong.. then you lose money.. simple as that.. but don't ever change your trades mid-way..

I didn't really like market movement after that and price was having trouble going down further... at 10:30...a white candle appeared and I got out at 1936 with $320 profits...

Notice the region I highlighted in orange? This might seem a plausible trade with stochastics turning down and price bouncing off the moving averages... But, look at Short-term MACD... don't you think its abit too close to the zero-line? I didn't take this trade... with hindsight, it might look like a good trade... However, in real-time.... you have to face the brutal fact that this would've been a high risk trade and you have to let it pass.

Posted by Michael Taylor at 5:36 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

5 min EMini Nasdaq 100

Existing home sales numbers were released at 10:00 am. It was bad.. but the market rallied... I missed this trade... but from 11:00 till 13:00, I could see price action topping out... there simply isn't enough momentum to carry price through...

There is a rare pattern of the rounding top today... This was accompanied by a downturn in stochastics... However at that point in time, I still couldn't tell that it was a rounding top... I had to wait till around 13:50 for price to break below the moving averages before I had enough conviction to go short..

I shorted 1 contract at 1950 and another 2 contracts at 1945.. after that, price juse shot past below the low established during the morning session and I was ready to get out at 1935 with profits of $700.

Fundamentals:
Sales of existing homes fell for a third straight month in May, dropping to the lowest level in four years as the median sales price declined for a record 10th consecutive month.
In a troubling sign for the future, the inventory of unsold homes shot up to the highest level in 15 years, meaning more downward pressure on prices in the months ahead until the inventory glut is reduced.

Sales fell by 0.3 percent in May to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.99 million units, the National Association of Realtors reported Monday. Sales now stand 10.3 percent below where they were a year ago.

The median price of an existing home sold last month fell to $223,700, down 2.1 percent from a year ago. It marked the 10th straight price decline compared with a year ago, the longest stretch on record.

After rising more than 100 points earlier in the day, the Dow Jones industrial average lost those gains to finish down 8.21 points at 13,352.05.

The drop in home sales was in line with expectations, providing relief on Wall Street where analysts had been braced for an even worse showing.

Posted by Michael Taylor at 5:46 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

5 min Emini Nasdaq 100

Hi,

The market's getting jittery about oil prices..price is still ranging on...not really in a trending mode..

I was watching the market the whole day with out a single trade.. Why? Because there was no signal for me to enter...

If you look at the charts.. you might feel that with hindsight, I should've gone long... But I would argue that this is infact a dangerous proposistion...

Although there was a downward bias... market is not really trending.. It stayed flat for much of the morning session...

At 12:00 pm, it broke down... why didn't I enter?
1 if you look at stochastics. is it turning down from the overbough region?
2 if you look at Short-term MACD, don't you feel that it is somewhat irregular? Lack of symmetry.

The only positive signal was from Long-term MACD which cut it's signal line... But this is not good enough for me to enter....

Well, I still didn't regret my decision... as you can see for yourself.. what kind of risk I would've put myself into if I forced the trade..

Posted by Michael Taylor at 6:50 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

5 min Emini Nasdaq 100

Hi,

Today's trade is pretty straight forward... I was especially careful during the first 30 minutes of market open... Are we getting a continuation of yesterday's downtrend? or are we getting a bounce back? these are the questions that constantly ran through my mind as a trader...

NOTE: I couldn't predict the market direction and the best way to trade is to let the market speak for itself..For a moment, I really thought that market was going down....with the huge red candlesticks from the opening bell..

But if you are observant enough, stochastics is also quietly turning up... implying a lost in downward momentum... at 10:00.. a doji red candlestick appeared and with the next candle, price shot up together with stochastics... I longed 1 contract at 1942....and another 2 contracts at 1947...

Confirmation signals from Short-term and Mid-term MACD came ( notice they crossed the signal line? ) Although price rebounded slightly from the moving averages, this gave me confidence to sit tight...

I exited at 1958.5 after doji patterns started to appear after hitting the moving averages..profits of $790.

Posted by Michael Taylor at 5:12 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

5 min Emini Nasdaq 100

Daily Emini Nasdaq 100

Hi,

How's it going? Market seems poised for a major correction... notice how we are not making new highs anymore? If you look at the daily charts, you will notice that the past 2 days have formed doji candles, suggesting that price might have peaked... and a downturn is just around the corner... This is exactly how I use the daily charts to get some idea of how the next day will be like... more of these will be covered in "Workbook for DayTrade Emini"

As the broad trend is still up... I am naturally very cautious in shorting... At 10:00 am when price broke my red moving averages, price rebounded sharply.... I didn't have a chance... the next time this happen was at 13:00... now conditions are different.. since there is a double top formation which is an extra powerful signal that we should go short...

I shorted 1 contract at 1962.5 with stop loss at 1967.. .after making a new low, price rebounded back up and I was slightly in the red... but it did not stop me out... and it started to go down again after touching my moving averages... I shorted another 2 contracts at 1962.5.. This time, price moved down for real and I held all the way till the end to close out at 1948.5 with profits of $840.

Posted by Michael Taylor at 5:42 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

5 min Emini Nasdaq 100

Hi,

How's it going? yes, I know, market conditions have been unpleasant lately... ranging on Friday and today...

If you look at the chart above, you will notice that price is ranged bound in a a 10 point box... consolidating... where will it go after that? I don't know.. traders don't predict the market... traders follow the market...

We have entered a region where market direction is not so clear and a major correction might just around the corner... Sit tight and be patient for the big move..

Posted by Michael Taylor at 5:26 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

5 min Emini Nasdaq 100

Hi,

How's it going lately? I would describe the current market at being stable and volatile... market is still ranging... NOT breaking new highs..
At 8:30 am this morning... May PPI figures were out... and apparently.. it went up 0.9%.. which means inflation concerns are up too.. obviously this is not good news.. but we will leave the interpretation to the market..

From the opening bell, price surged all the way till 10:00 am... I missed this trade, because my system did not provide an entry signal...Stochastics was already in the overbought region and Short-term MACD looked like it could turn down anytime.... it's easy to tell in hindsight that this might be a possible trade... but it's the consistent decisions that you make during trading that makes you money...

After 10:00 am... although there was a slight pullback.. prices ranged for most of the time... notice that Short-term MACD stayed close to the zero-lines? It's easy to get killed in these markets..

Learning point today: Don't be afraid to miss a trade, because opportunities are never ending in a market.

Fundamentals:
The May PPI was up 0.9%. That isn't the good news. It was boosted by a 4.1% jump in energy prices. The good news is that the core rate was up just 0.2%. That was in line with expectations but follows two 0.0% numbers. The trend is clearly not troublesome. The year-over-year increase in the core rate is a modest 1.6%.

Posted by Michael Taylor at 5:23 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

5 minutes Chart - Emini Nasdaq 100

Hi,

No trade today. Retail sales are up 1.4% in May and this is a good sign of strong consumer confidence.. economy's still expanding... Good news...

Well, the market reflected that news by gapping up this morning... But today, there is no trade... If you look at the highlighted region.. you might think there is a plausible trade... when stochastics turned up and crossed the moving averages..

However, a point to take note is that Short-term MACD remains uncomfortably near the zero line and If you look at Mid-term MACD, it's even closer to the zero line...

There just weren't enough singals for me to be convinced that price was going up... Had to give it a miss... Chances are always around and you can't capture all trades... Better to be safe than sorry..


Fundamentals:
Rate worries are still resonating with investors, but their confidence level rose once the Commerce Department said that retail sales jumped 1.4 percent in May. This rise was the highest in 16 months and doubled what analysts expected. Investors were also pleased about the Federal Reserve's Beige Book report, which said the U.S. economy kept expanding at a moderate pace in the first part of the second quarter. Bond yields, whose advance caused a pullback in stocks last week and again Tuesday, spiked early Wednesday before falling back with release of the new economic data

Posted by Michael Taylor at 5:55 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

5 min Emini Nasdaq 100

Hi,

How's it going? Market gapped down today.. and it went ahead to cover the gap and beyond... I did not participate in this gap closure.. as you can see, the Short -Term MACD is very near the zero-line which is a taboo for entering... although stochastics looks symmetrical, I just didn't feel comfortable with the trade...

Instead, I waited till 14:00.. when price reached a top. and when stochastics started to plunge down... I shorted 1 contract at 1937.5 and another 2 contracts at 1928.. This is a safe entry as it is obvious that the moving averages are acting like a sort of upper resistance to the price movements... I stayed in my position all the way till short-term MACD showed signs of turning up and I exited at 1916.5 with profits of $880.

Posted by Michael Taylor at 5:33 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

5 min Emini Nasdaq 100

Hi,
Is there a trade today?
The highlighted region in the figure above shows a plausible,, but ,,, I did not take it.. Reason?

Short-term MACD is too near the zero line and price movement is too sluggish... By experience I knew that there is a more than 50% chance that today is going to be a ranging day..

Furthermore, if you look at S&P Emini, Volume is below 10,000... This really suggests a weak start and lack of interest among the participants...

Is the market brewing for something even bigger to come? I don't know, let's wait and see.

Posted by Michael Taylor at 3:22 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

5 min Emini Nasdaq 100 Candlestick

Daily Emini Nasdaq 100 Candlestick

Hi,

How's it going lately? Market's been coming down for the past 2 days .. and volatility is picking up again. As day traders, we need a certain volatility to make money... we can't really make much in a slow ranging market...

Today price rebounded... had I expected it? yes! If you look at the daily chart above, yesterday price dropped to the lower band of the bollinger band... and knowing that this is a strong market, we certainly should expect some kind of rebound... but, this is all just expectations before the trade.. we still have to confirm it with actual market movements..

1st Trade,
My first trade is long... if you read the charts carefully, you will see that there is a hammer candlestick with longer lower whiskers and stochastics is turning up too.. What do you do? LONG!. I longed 1 contract at 1883 and 2 more contracts at 1888... I am aiming more for a whole day rally... however, at around 10:00 am, price momentum started to slow down and I am getting abit uneasy...

I decided to exit at 1895 with profits of $460.. notice that stochastics is already in the overbought region and I couldn't confirm how long it would stay there.. the weak price momentum didn't help much either..

2nd Trade
I had to wait a while for this second trade... price slowed down to a jitter from 11:00 am onwards... but at 13:30,, price broke out of the triangle upwards... this is evidence of strong price momentum... this alone is enough for me to go long... I entered 1 contract at 1896 and another 2 contracts at 1898.. I exited my position only at 1905 when it hit the moving averages and a red candle appeared..

Total profits = $980.

Posted by Michael Taylor at 5:34 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

5 min Emini Nasdaq 100

The day opened with a slight gap down which was immediately covered... price then started to tumble... I wasn't too sure in the morning session as market direction is not transparent... and I did not have a signal to enter... But what I do know is, if I were to enter, it would have to be a short...

My chance came at 12:30... when price rallied up to my lowest moving average and simply bounced down... This is accompanied by Stochastics turning down which was a very bearish signal...

I shorted 1 contract at 1907 and another 2 contracts at 1904 when there was a slight pause in price movements.. After that, the next 30 minutes that followed was making me smile all the way to the bank..

I only exited at 1891 when the whisker of the redcandle appeared to be as long as the body and a white candlestick appeared next... profits = $840.

Posted by Michael Taylor at 5:54 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

5 min Emini Nasdaq 100

Today price gapped down by almost 8 points. A big gap down... normally, if the magnitude of the gap exceeds 5 points. Price could go either way --> either it could close the gap or continue in the direction of the gap (resulting in a runaway gap).

The gap down resulted in a downturn in stochastics together with MACD from the opening bell and I shorted 1 contract at 1927... then another 2 contracts at 1925... Price movement was very volatile and it was jumping up and down and making me feel uneasy about the trade... it could end up as a ranging day... and I hate such volatile yet ranging days... it's simply not worth it to trade in such markets.... . I exited at 1922 with profits of $160... Notice that after I exited, stochastics started to turn up.? (orange circle)

Posted by Michael Taylor at 12:29 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

5 min Emini Nasdaq 100

Hi,

How's it going? The market gapped down today... I captured only part of the movement... I did not captured the part where it closed the gap....

After gapping down almost 6 points from the opening bell, price made several attempts to close the gap but was unsucessful. It's logical to think that price momentum is weak and it does have problems closing the gap... Indeed i was looking for a good shorting opportunity...

The chance came at 11:15, when Stochastic began to turn down from the oversold region accompanied by a red candlestick... My risk/reward? Good! and my stop loss was just yesterday's close at 1936.. I shorted 1 contract at 1933 and another 2 contracts at 1928 when price broke through the moving averages.. Notice how Short-term MACD also crossed the zero-line?

Price tumbled down... all the way... and I was tempted to exit at 1924,, but held my horses until it hit 1919 and bounced up with a white candle.. I finally exited at 1920 with $580 profits.

Posted by Michael Taylor at 5:54 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

5 min Emini Nasdaq 100

Hi,

The hype today's about china. China Stocks went down by as much as 8%... so how's that affecting the US market?

Well, the nasdaq did gapped down today by almost 10 points. Normally such a huge gap down, we would expect price to continue in the direction of the gap and further widen the gap... However,... a trader has to be nimble and follow the flow...

Price rebounded from the moving average... I immediately longed 1 contract at 1925 and another 2 contracts at 1928.. My risk / reward is good.. cut loss position is just below the moving average at 1922...

Nasdaq 100 went all the way to cover the gap and beyond.. however, after that, a doji appeared and I exited all my positions with a profit of $420.

Posted by Michael Taylor at 5:18 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

5 min Emini Nasdaq 100

Hi,

Market gapped up on bullish non-farm payroll numbers which were larger than expected...

I did not play the gap... too late... and gaps always have a tendency to close... I waited till 10:00 am when price momentum began to show signs of weakening... Stochastic began to turn down and I shorted 1 contract at 1942 and another 2 more contracts at 1939.5 ... I rode the stochastics down all the way till the oversold region and price closed the gap and went beyond that to touch the moving averages.. there was a slight rebound and I exited at 1935.. with profits of $320.

Fundamentals:
Two of the most important economic releases were bullish. May nonfarm payrolls were up a larger than expected 157,000. April was revised modestly lower to an 80,000 increase from an originally reported 88,000 gain. The May increase represents a 1.1% annual rate of increase. That, along with wage gains, is enough to keep consumer spending rising at a 2.5% to 3.5% pace. That in turn will help real GDP stay on track for 2% to 2.5% growth the next couple of quarters (housing remains a drag that will keep growth below the long-term trend of 3%).

Hourly earnings in the employment data were up 0.3% for May. That left the year-over-year increase at 3.8%. CPI is up 2.6% over the past year, so that represents about 1% real growth in wages. As noted above, real wage growth and payroll growth will keep consumer spending rising at a good pace.

In fact, the April personal consumption expenditure data also released this morning showed spending up 0.5% in May. That provides a good foundation to start second quarter GDP towards the widely expected 2% to 2.5% real rate of growth.

Posted by Michael Taylor at 5:43 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)