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September 28, 2007

Double bottom by Stochastics, MACD up, Long --> $380 profits

5 mini Nasdaq Emini

Hi,

How's it going lately? market has been unpredictable, zig zagging up and down. I had been reluctant to trade during the morning session.. The moving averages were flat and I simply couldn't tell where market was heading...

My chance only came at around 15:00 when price suddenly rebounded togehter with stochastics making a double bottom pattern. This is a rare pattern and a good signal, risk / reward is good. I longed 1 contract at 2106 and another 2 more contracts at 2108.5... price snapped back all the way to the moving averages... I exited only at 2114 when stochastics started to turn down .. profits = $380.

September 27, 2007

New home sales at 7 yr low, Price bounced from moving averages --> BUT no trade! why?

5 min Emini Nasdaq 100

Hi,

Market gapped up today and closed it almost immediately, price then proceeded in a zig zag sluggish manner... I didn't like the way price moved....

Although my signals told me to go long when price dropped to the pink moving average, ( green circle above), I did not make a move.. The risk is too great... judging from the movements in the morning sessions, and where the highs are, there isn't enough room for a large enough bounce back...

I decided not to risk anything.. and stayed out.. NO TRADE TODAY.

Fundamentals:
New-homes sales tumbled in August to the lowest level in seven years, a stark sign that the credit crunch is aggravating an already painful housing slump.
Sales of new homes dropped 8.3 percent in August from July, the Commerce Department reported Thursday, driving down sales to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 795,000. That was the lowest level since June 2000.
"This is just hideous," said Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at High Frequency Economics.
The home sales report came on the same day that the government reported a relatively brisk business growth rate in revised figures for the second quarter. But the 3.8 percent pace was less than previously estimated and it occurred before the credit crisis and its repercussions across the broad spectrum of the economy had taken hold.
Home prices tanked.
The median sales price in August fell by 7.5 percent from a year earlier to $225,700. That was the biggest drop in percentage terms in nearly 37 years. The median price is the middle point at which half sell for more and half for less. The average sales price dropped by 8 percent in August from a year earlier to $292,000. That was the biggest decline in 17 years.

September 26, 2007

Double bottom, bounce from moving average, Stochastics up, MACD up --> $100 profits

5 min Emini Nasdaq 100

Hi,

Market has been a little unpredictable of late... and I dont find many chances to trade. Today's trade is a classic pattern.

At the open, price gapped up.. but then it closed the gap and rebounded from the moving averages in a double bottom formation. This is a very powerful signal. Furthermore, short-term MACD and Stochastics cut their signal lines.. This gave me the confidence to enter 1 contract at 2104 and another 2 more contracts at 2109...

However, things started to turn bad after my 2nd entry.. stochastics started to turn down and I exited immediately at 2109 with profits of $100.

September 21, 2007

Price hit Resistance, Bounced down with Stochastic --> $400 profits

5 min Emini Nasdaq 100

Hi,

Market is still digesting the FED cuts, no clear direction as of now... but nonetheless day traders like us can still play the market. There will inevitably be short-term fluctuations in the intra-day market and that is what we aim to capture.

Today's trade did not come until 15:20 when price hit the resistance line formed by today's high. It failed to break through the high and this is the 3rd attempt at the break this resistance line. Price immediately rebounded back and I shorted 1 contract at 2076 and another 2 more contracts at 2074..

Along the way, you can see that Short-term MACD has crossed the signal line too which confirms the direction of the trade. I exited the trade at the end only when price hit the moving averages at 2068 with profits of $400.

September 20, 2007

No trades today

5 min Emini Nasdaq 100
<br />

Hi,

How's is it going? Can't really tell the market direction? Don't worry, you are not alone. Market basically gapped down today and immediately closed the gap, thereafter, it bounced up and down in a zig zag fashion...

Notice that I have circled a plausible trade on the chart? I did not take this trade for the following reasons:
1       Although stochastics turned up from oversold region and this is a valid signal, price action is basically sluggish and have been zig-zag from the morning session onwards. I did not want to risk it.

2      Notice how the highs never exceeded the previous highs? (See the support and resistance lines drawn which forms a nice wedge) This simply tells me that there is not enough momentum to push price up.

Conclusion: No trade.

Gap closed, price rebound, Stochastics up and MACD up --> $120 profits

5 min Emini Nasdaq 100

Hi,

Today has been a sluggish day after yesterday's surge.. Price gapped up, but nonetheless, it slowly edged down to close the gap completely..

As usual, in my usual trade, I waited for the gap to close and observe if there are any rebounds... Price rebounded from the moving averages and Short-term MACD had already cut the signal line, stochastics was also up... I longed 1 contract at 2036...
I did not enter another contract as the price action was sluggish... I decided to observe... Price was indeed sluggish and I got out at 2042 when stochastics started to turn down... profits $120

September 18, 2007

Fed cuts rate by 0.5%! Market rally --> $1780 profits

5 min Nasdaq Emini 100

Hi,

Did you managed to capture the fed rate cut? Today's trade is a special situation trade. Market is quiet before the FOMC annoucement and it's pointless to trade in this kind of markets. Everytime there's a FOMC annoucement I won't trade until 2:15 pm when the rates are finally out.

Price immediately shot up on the announcement was out.. I longed 1 contract at 1997 and was almost not in time to go long on another 2 more contracts, I only managed to get in at 2005... After this, it was all plain sailing... just sit and wait.. upward momentum was too strong to be ignored... This basically gave me the signal that price action overide all other indicators... I only exited towards the end at 2032 when stochastics started to turn down a little.. profits $1780.

Fundamentals:
In a bold strike, the Federal Reserve slashed a key interest rate by a half point on Tuesday -- the first cut in over four years -- and left the door open to further relief to prevent a painful housing slump and jarring credit crunch from driving the country into recession.

In a crucial and anxiously awaited decision, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke and his central bank colleagues lowered an important interest rate to 4.75 percent. Economic and political pressure has been building on the Fed to act.
As a result, Wells Fargo, Bank of America and other commercial banks dropped their prime lending rate charged to millions of borrowers by a corresponding amount to 7.75 percent.

Whether Bernanke can handle the crisis successfully is the biggest challenge he has faced in his 19 months at the Fed helm.
"Today's action is intended to help forestall some adverse effects on the economy that might otherwise arise from disruptions in financial markets and to promote moderate growth over time," the Fed said in a statement released after its closed-door meeting.

The Fed's action means borrowers who can obtain credit should see rates drop on a variety of loans. It will become less expensive for people to finance certain credit card debt and for homeowners to take out popular home equity lines of credit, which often are used to pay for education, home improvements or medical bills.

And, it will help some homeowners whose adjustable rate mortgages reset in the fall. Those rates will still go up but not by as much as they otherwise could have, analysts said.The biggest worry is that people and businesses will cut back on their spending and investment, throwing the economy into a tailspin. Tuesday's rate cut is aimed at making sure that doesn't happen.

September 17, 2007

Market quiet ahead of FOMC, Stochastic up, MACD up --> $140 profits

5 min Emini Nasdaq 100

Market gapped down today. The general feel for the market is quite sluggish. Price is not moving much and most traders are concerned over the rate decisions by the FED.

In today's trade, I entered only one contract, price action is too sluggish to justify entering another 2 more contracts. I entered at 1980 when price bottomed out with stochastick turning up and short-term MACD turning up as well.

I exited when price hit the moving averages and turned down together with stochastic with al profit of $140.

September 14, 2007

Gap Closure, MACD up, Stochastic up, Hit Resitance --> Take profits $560

5 min Emini Nasdaq 100

Hi,

How's it going lately? Markets have be muted ahead of FED meetings... But today, it gapped down and presented a good opportunity to play the gap closing.. Normally I don't like to play gap closure, but the price action today is strong and I placed my stop loss at 1981.5 so if I am wrong, I don't get hit too badly..

I longed 1 contract at 1986 and another 2 more contracts at 1990.. Notice how stochastic cuts up into its signal line and how Short-term MACD and Mid-term MACD also cut their signal lines? All these signals serves to confirm my trade.. As price rallied to yesterday's close (which is a natural resistance level), I became cautious as price action appeared sluggish.. I exited at 1998 when stochastic started to turn down with profits of $560.

September 13, 2007

Gap Closed, Bounce of moving average, Stochastics up, Moving averages up --> $380 profits

5 min Emini Nasdaq 100

Hi,

Market gapped up today... Is the Fed going to cut rates? Seems like everybody is optimistic... I did not play the gap closure... Price closed the gap pretty fast.. I waited for it to hit the moving averages and as Expected, it rebounded together with my stochastics moving up.. This is a classic pattern... If you have been following my trades long enough, you will know that this is one of my favourite set ups.. Short-term MACD also appeared to be turning up..

I longed 1 contract at 1995 and another 2 more contracts when it shot past yesterday's close at 1997... I exited at 2004 when price approached today's opening and stochastic appeared to be turning down again... profits of $380.

September 12, 2007

Oil hits $80, Stochastics up, MACD up --> Long --> $300 profits

5 min Emini Nasdaq 100

Hi,

Market gapped down today, but it quickly recovered and went a long way up in the morning session. I missed the gapped closure and the first leg of the up trend. There were no signals for me to enter.

My chance came at around 13:25 when price was already battered down near to the moving averages and stochastics started to turn up. Short-term MACD also started to turn up. I long 1 contract at 1997 and another 2 contracts at 2000. I exited at 2004 when stochastic started to turn down when price hit the 2004-2005 region which is a resistance line formed by the mornign session. I exited with profits of $300.

All in all, this was a difficult trade, price movement was sluggish and there was not really a lot of room left for movement in the first place. I took the trade because my stop loss was tight. at 1993, if it breaks below the moving averages I was prepared to exit immediately..

Fundamentals:
Although this was not part of the trading decision, its an important piece of news that could affect the general economy outlook:

Oil futures prices rose sharply Wednesday, briefly climbing above a record $80 a barrel after the government reported a surprisingly large drop in crude inventories and declines in gasoline supplies and refinery activity.
The report from the Energy Department's Energy Information Administration suggested oil supplies are tightening as demand remains strong. That's why oil prices are rising despite OPEC's decision on Tuesday to boost crude production by 500,000 barrels per day this fall, analysts said.
Despite Wednesday's jump, oil is still well below inflation-adjusted highs hit in early 1980. Depending on the adjustment, a $38 barrel of oil in 1980 would be worth $96 to $101 or more today.
Oil's recent advance has been largely due to speculative buying by big investment funds, who are responding to a price structure in which oil contracts for delivery in future months are cheaper than the current front-month contract

September 11, 2007

Rebound from Moving averages, Stochastics up, MACD up --> $160 profits

5 min Emini Nasdaq 100

Market gapped up today and direction was not clear but price inched up bit by bit... This is a difficult market to trade. I am unwilling to risk money on unclear and slow markets.

The real signal only came towards the close when price spiked down and rebounded at the moving averages.. This is a classic setup.. However, the trade would immediately meet resistance at 1993 - 1995 area which is the high set for the day, I am only comfortable trading 1 contract.

Stochastics turned up from oversold and Short-term MACD turned up too. I entered 1 contract at 1985 and exited at 1993 with $160 profits.

Closed gap, Stochastic down, MACD down --> $840 profits

5 min Nasdaq Emini

Hi,

Many readers have been asking where I was last week. Apologies for not updating.. I took a holiday down to asia... relaxed my mind and refreshed my trading instincts.. Notheless I keep in touch with the market....

Well.. today's trade is pretty straight forward.. Gap up? Yes, but the movement after that? It's bad. The second candlestick started to close below the open price and this was already a sign for the gap closure... I shorted 1 contract at 1977 when stochastics appeared to be turning down.. notice how short-term MACD turned down too? Then I shorted another 2 more contracts at 1968.

I exited at 1957 when stochastics turned up and price also appeared to be nearing the previous Friday's low which is a support line. Profits of $880.

September 4, 2007

Sept Kicks off with a good start, Strong momentum, Stochastics up --> $730 profits

5 min Nasdaq Emini 100

Price broke from the start and as soon as it crossed the resistance line formed by the previous friday's high, I longed 1 contract at 2002. Notice that this is not a conventional play.. Price momentum is so high that I couldn't resist entering. Price action in this case takes precedence over all other indicators..

However, if you observed, although stochastics and MACD did not strictly turn up from oversold region, they did turn up sharply upwards.. and I was comforable going long another 2 contracts at 2007.

I stayed in my trade all the way until 2017.5 when short-term MACD cut the signal line with profits of $730.